Why You Shouldn't Always Draft a RB First in Fantasy Football

The age old fantasy football strategy has always been to draft a running back with your first selection. Running backs have traditionally been the workhorses of an NFL offense, receiving more touches and scoring more fantasy football points than any other position.

In an era where RB-heavy draft strategies are en vogue, it's high time we explored a contrarian viewpoint: the growing allure of drafting a wide receiver (WR) in the first round. Buckle up, folks, it's time for a deep dive into the numbers.

The Paradigm Shift: Why WRs are Gaining Ground

Traditionally, fantasy managers have leaned towards drafting running backs in the first round. It's an approach grounded in logic: running backs have the ball more and, theoretically, more opportunities to score points. But times are changing, and today's NFL is different. The league is becoming increasingly pass-heavy, and the rise of RB-by-committee approaches has diluted the consistency of RB1s.

To start, the lifespan of a top-tier running back in the NFL is, unfortunately, quite short. They often peak early and have a much higher risk of suffering a season-ending injury than their WR counterparts. In fact, in 2020, the injury rate among starting RBs was a staggering 35.3%, compared to just 21.1% for WRs, according to Sports Injury Predictor. As a fantasy manager, the stability and consistency offered by a top-tier WR are often more appealing than the boom-or-bust nature of a running back.

Additionally, the NFL's rule changes over the past decade have favoured the passing game. Pass interference calls, defensive holding, and other rules that protect receivers and quarterbacks have led to an increase in passing attempts and, subsequently, WR production. The advent of high-volume slot receivers, who often act as pseudo-running backs, has also blurred the lines between the traditional roles of RBs and WRs. This increased target volume for WRs not only elevates their fantasy floor but also presents a higher ceiling - especially in PPR (point per reception) leagues.

Moreover, the RB-by-committee approach adopted by many teams has made it increasingly difficult to find a workhorse running back who commands the lion's share of the carries. While there are still a few elite backs that do, they're often snatched up in the first few picks. If you're not lucky enough to snag one of these coveted few, the drop-off in production can be severe.

On the flip side, the number of viable WR1s has exploded, primarily due to the aforementioned shift towards a pass-heavy offense. Many teams now boast multiple WRs that could function as WR1s on other teams, leading to a wealth of options for fantasy managers.

In fact, according to Pro Football Reference, in 2020, the average top-24 PPR WR scored just 25% less than the average top-12 PPR RB. However, the top-24 PPR WR played an average of 14.8 games, while the top-12 PPR RB only managed 13.1. This discrepancy might not seem significant, but over a fantasy season, that extra game or two can make all the difference between making the playoffs or sitting on the sidelines.

In terms of draft strategy, this paradigm shift suggests that drafting a top-tier WR in the first round could be a wise move, especially if you're picking late in the round. Then, depending on the depth and structure of your league, you can still secure quality RBs in the subsequent rounds. It's a strategy that requires flexibility and a keen eye on your fantasy football draft board.

The Safety Factor: WRs vs. RBs

Perhaps the most significant factor when considering your first-round pick is safety. NFL football is a brutal sport, and injuries are commonplace, but WRs tend to be slightly less susceptible than their RB counterparts. For instance, the 2022 season saw several RB1s, including popular first-overall fantasy selection Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, and Dalvin Cook, suffer significant injuries, derailing the plans of many fantasy managers.

WRs, on the other hand, offer a more reliable option. They are less prone to serious injuries due to the nature of their position, allowing them to consistently rack up points over the season. Consistency is the key to a successful fantasy season, and high-volume WRs offer that in spades.

Volume and Efficiency: The WR Edge

The increasing shift towards passing offenses in the NFL is hard to ignore. In 2022, NFL teams passed the ball on 57.9% of plays, up from 56.6% in 2021. This shift translates to more opportunities for WRs. In terms of volume and efficiency, top-tier WRs are now matching and often surpassing RBs.

Let's take a closer look at the math. The average top-10 WR in 2022 was targeted 150 times, while the average top-10 RB only touched the ball on rushing and receiving plays 320 times. That's less than a 2.5:1 ratio in favor of RBs. But when you factor in the reality that an average rush in the NFL goes for 4.4 yards, while an average completed pass goes for 11.2 yards, it's clear that WRs have a real opportunity to outscore RBs.

Additionally, consider the scoring structure in PPR (points per reception) leagues, which is the most popular scoring format in fantasy football today. In these leagues, WRs have a natural advantage because they accumulate more receptions than RBs. On average, a top-10 WR had 100 receptions in 2022, while a top-10 RB only managed 60 receptions. That's a 40-point advantage for WRs in PPR leagues just off receptions alone.

But the edge for WRs isn't just about volume—it's also about efficiency. While RBs may still touch the ball more, the quality of those touches has been decreasing. The rise of RB-by-committee approaches has meant that fewer RBs are getting the lion's share of carries on their teams. In contrast, the top WRs are still the primary targets on their teams and see a more significant percentage of the total passing volume.

An increase in passing efficiency across the league further bolsters the case for WRs. Quarterbacks are throwing for more yards and more touchdowns than ever before, and their main beneficiaries are their top WRs. In 2022, QBs averaged a passer rating of 93.5, up from 90.2 in 2021. As teams throw more and do so more efficiently, WRs stand to gain the most.

Plus, it's essential to account for the injury risk. RBs tend to have a higher injury rate due to the nature of their position. They're consistently taking hard hits and carrying a more significant workload. In contrast, WRs tend to be more durable, and having a top-tier WR on your fantasy team that you can rely on week in and week out can be a huge advantage.

Flexibility: Drafting WRs First Opens Up Opportunities

Drafting a WR in the first round allows for more flexibility in later rounds. With a top-tier WR locked in, you can target high-upside RBs in the middle rounds, where there's often plenty of value to be found. This strategy also allows you to react to the draft as it unfolds, rather than forcing you to chase RBs early on.

Remember, building a winning fantasy football team is about exploiting value wherever it crops up. If the value lies in a WR in the first round, why not seize it? After all, securing a top-tier WR like A.J. Brown who finished as the WR4 in PPR leagues in 2022 despite running only the 28th most routes, can give you a consistent high scorer to build your team around.

The Bottom Line: A New Era in Fantasy Football

Ultimately, the shift towards a more pass-heavy NFL and the rise of high-volume, highly efficient WRs are changing the face of fantasy football. The value and safety of WRs are making them increasingly attractive first-round options. The strategy isn't just about going against the grain; it's about adapting to the changing landscape of the NFL and exploiting inefficiencies in traditional draft strategies.

So, as we gear up for the 2023 NFL fantasy football drafts, don't shy away from making a splash. If the opportunity arises to snag a top-tier WR like Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase or Davante Adams in the first round, don't hesitate to pull the trigger. It could be the game-changing decision that leads your team to glory.

Remember, folks, in fantasy football, as in the NFL itself, adaptation and evolution are key. Don't cling to outdated strategies. Instead, embrace the thrill of the game, stay adaptable, and always keep an eye on the numbers. After all, numbers never lie. Happy drafting!