NFL Week 9 Betting Picks & Expert Insights

Week 9 of the NFL season offers bettors another scintillating Sunday slate. Headlined by an AFC East showdown between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills, and an NFC North extravaganza with Lions vs Packers, the Week 9 odds offer bettors plenty of opportunity to win.

Let's find the value in the latest NFL betting odds.

New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans (-3.5), O/U 37.5

Jerod Mayo's Pats have to be riding high after a surprise 25-22 victory over the New York Jets as 7-point underdogs last week. Tennessee were shellacked 52-14 by the Lions in a game where the Titans coughed up the football four times and went just 3-for-11 on third-down.

Drake Maye is out of concussion protocol and will start for the Patriots. While the Titans will continue to trot out Mason Rudolph.

Tennessee are ninth in defensive DVOA. If the offense can stop coughing up the football, this Titans defense has a chance to win this contest. Titans defense 11th in EPA per play.

However, Teams after facing the Lions are 0-6 SU/ATS this season, failing to cover by an average of 19.3 PPG and 14-25 ATS over the last three seasons – the least profitable previous opponent ATS in the NFL. Expect that trend to continue in Week 9.

Pick: Patriots +3

New Orleans Saints (-7) at Carolina Panthers, O/U 43.5

Panthers defense 31st in defensive epa, dropback success rate, pass-rush win rate and run-stop win rate allowed this season.

Derek Carr is expected to start. Although, the Saints will be without both Marshon Lattimore and Kool-Aid McKinstry in this one.

With New Orleans top cover men out, it may be time to target some Xavier Leggette props. Carolina is a dumpster fire on both sides of the football. Play the under.

Pick: Saints vs Panthers UNDER 43.5 -110

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5), O/U 45.5

Baltimore's passing defense ranks 32nd in the NFL in total yardage. However, that's mostly due to their outstanding offense. Opponents' have been forced to pass the football and chase points as Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense have lit up the scoreboard.

Todd Monken's offense leads the league in dropback success rate and sits second in EPA per play. Plus, general manager Eric DeCosta just picked up Diontae Johnson from Carolina.

Ravens are a bit of an enigma, having lost to both the Raiders and Browns.

Denver has won five of their last six games. However, they've faced an easy schedule to this point. Baltimore will be a step up after games against the Panthers, banged-up Saints, and Raiders.

Vance Joseph has turned this Broncos defense around. But, there's only so long the Broncos can keep this game close, as their staple of wide receivers leaves a lot to be desired.

Expect the Ravens to pull away early.

Lean: Ravens first-half -6.5

Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5), O/U 46.5

Vegas is a brutal football team. They were lucky to put up 20 points against a vicious Chiefs defense last week.

Bengal 25th in defensive DVOA. Burrow elite. He’s PFF’s highest-graded passer and ranks top five in both EPA+CPOE and adjusted completion rate. Burrow will eat up a Raiders secondary that ranks last in PFF’s coverage grades.

Cincy will miss Tee Higgins as he's doubtful for this one. Expect the Bengals to run roughshod over an overmatched Raiders squad. Raiders defense has allowed over 100 total yards to opposing backs per game this season. Bet on Chase Brown to take advantage of that.

Pick: Bengals Team Total OVER 26.5 Points (-122), Chase Brown over 61.5 rushing yards -114

Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) at Cleveland Browns, O/U 42.5

The Chargers defense has been fantastic this season, ranking second in EPA per play, fourth in dropback success rate,

Justin Herbert has played outstanding football over the past three weeks, leading the league in PFF's passing grade (90.9). He's also third in passing yards and second in big-time thrown percentage. Los Angeles' road grading offensive line have done an excellent job protecting Herbert. I like the Chargers to outscore the Browns on Sunday.

Pick: Chargers -1.5 -110

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-6.5), O/U 49.5

Dolphins 27th in defensive DVOA. 13th in defensive EPA per play. Jevon Holland and Kader Kohou missed last week and failed to practice in the leadup to this contest. If they can't go, Miami will be hardpressed to stop an explosive Bills offense that sits third in offensive EPA per play.

Bills superstar Josh Allen leads the NFL in adjusted EPA per play by a wide margin.

Tua Tagovailoa has thrown just seven touchdowns with 10 interceptions in eight games against Sean McDermott's defense.

This divisional showcase promises to be memorable. With Tua on the field, the Dolphins are a different unit. But, the Bills are 9-1 SU in their last 10 against the Dolphins. Buffalo has covered four of their past five games vs the AFC East. I like the Bills on the first-half spread for this one.

Pick: Bills -3.5 1st-half spread (-110)

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5), O/U 51.5

With Demarcus Lawrence on injured reserve and Micah Parsons banged up the Dallas Cowboys pass-rush has been non-existent.

No Cowboys pass rusher posted a win rate of over 5% against the 49ers. That's a huge issue against a red-hot Falcons team. Kirk Cousins is balling out, with 10 touchdowns across his last four weeks of football. In fact, Mike Zimmer's defense ranks 26th in pass-rush win rate.

Meanwhile, the Falcons rank seventh in EPA per play. Cousins himself is in the top 10 in EPA, YPA, pressured completion percentage, and QBR.

This total was bet up from 49 to 51.5 and with the expectation of points, I expect Dallas to score regardless of the game state. The Cowboys can’t run the ball, so they’ll be forced to throw the football for nearly the entirety of the game.

Pick: Cowboys Team Total OVER 24.5 Points -106

Washington Commanders (-3.5) at New York Giants, O/U 43.5

Washington's offense will be the best unit on the field in this contest. After all when these teams' squared off in Week 2, the Commanders never punted.

The G-Men lost starting left tackle Andrew Thomas to injured reserve two weeks ago, and promptly gave up seven sacks against the Steelers on Monday Night Football. That's a problem against a Commanders defense which ranks first in pressure rate over the past four weeks.

Jayden Daniels looks healthy enough to buy time against a ferocious Giants pass-rush. I'm rolling with the Commanders and buying them down a point at -2.5.

Additionally, Terry McLaurin has posted at least 98 receiving yards in three of this last four games. He leads the NFL in air yards (865), is fourth in deep targets (16), and 10th in yards per route run (2.57). Scary Terry is primed for a big day against a terrible Giants secondary.

Pick: Commanders -2.5 -170, McLaurin Over 61.5 Rec yards -110, McLaurin 100+ receiving yards +350

Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5), O/U 44.5

Montez Sweat, Braxton Jones, Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker all missed practice this week. Sweat leads the Bears in sacks (3.5), if he can't go Chicago will have a tough time chasing down Kyler Murray. Jones is the starting left tackle, Gordon their nickel corner, Briskier their starting safety has been out since early October with a concussion.

Chicago has to be reeling after giving up the Hail Mary to lose against Washington as time expired. That type of loss seems to have divided the coaching staff and locker room, as multiple Bears players criticized their late play-calling.

While Eberflus is an excellent defensive coach, the Bears are tough to trust. His awful in-game decision making cost Chicago a victory last week.

Arizona's defense isn't any good. But, Kyler Murray has elite weapons in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride. Additionally, James Conner has been excellent in the Cardinals downhill rushing attack. Without three defensive starters, the Bears will be hardpressed to win this football game. Back the Cardinals at home.

Pick: Arizona -1 -110

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5), O/U 45.5

Jags will miss Brian Thomas Jr. and Christian Kirk. They just traded their left tackle Cam Robinson. On top of that, Doug Pederson's offense has sputtered for most of the season

Eagles are the heaviest run team in the league when leading in 2024.

Jacksonville's defense is dead last in EPA per play. Look for Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and AJ Brown to have a field day.

Pick: Eagles -7.5 +100

Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) at Seattle Seahawks, O/U 48.5

Mike MacDonald’s defense has been gashed on the ground this year. In fact, the Seahawks surrender the 29th-most rushing yards per game (148.4), and sit 28th in rushing success rate allowed. 

Concerningly, the Seahawks have lost four of their past five games, and three straight at home. The Rams are getting healthy at just the right time and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in Seattle.

Expect to see a whole lot of Kyren Williams running the football downhill. Back the Rams to come away with the victory in what should be a hardnosed NFC West showdown.

Pick: Rams ML -122

Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Green Bay Packers, O/U 48.5

Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions are red-hot. The Lions are a well-oiled machine, racking up 24 offensive touchdowns with quarterback Jared Goff throwing just 19 incompletions over the past four weeks. Lions will have to get their footing right in the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field with rain and wind in the forecast.

Packers have 19 turnovers in eight games. Jeff Hafley's new defense has been an unequivocal success. Additionally, Matt Lafleur 24-11 ATS as an underdog, covering by over four points per contest.

Sunday is Detroit's first outdoor game of the season. That's huge as Goff is a different player outdoors. In fact, he's thrown 38% more interceptions, with a 10% lower passer rating and 18% less touchdowns per attempt when playing outside during his career.

I like the UNDER as a contrarian player in Lions vs Packers.

On the player props side, Dontayvion Wicks dominates versus man coverage with a 40% target share this season. The Lions play more man than any team in the NFL at over 42. Expect Wicks to have a big day.

Pick: Under 47.5 -110, Dontayvion Wicks Over 20.5 rec yards -110, Wicks 40+ receiving yards +320, Wicks 50+ rec yards +475

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5), O/U 46.5

Elite Joe Flacco returns to the field as a starter against a raucous Minnesota Vikings defense on Sunday Night Football.

Expect to see ageless Joe get the ball out of his hands quickly. The Colts offensive line leads the league in both PFF pass-blocking and run-blocking grade. Which should lead to some extra time for Flacco as he distributes the football to his downfield weapons.

The Colts are an NFL-best 7-1 ATS this season, with their four losses coming by a combined 14 points. Back the Colts as underdogs.

Pick: Colts +5.5 -110

Bonus Monday Night Football pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5), O/U 45.5

Tampa Bay's explosive offense has looked fantastic in 2024. However, both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans will miss this contest. That's bad news against a phenomenal Kansas City defense.

Steve Spagnuolo's unit allows just 17.6 points per game, and 5.1 yards per play.

Baker Mayfield will be forced to dropback and pass early and often to keep pace with the Chiefs offense in this one. Expect to see the Chiefs tee off against a banged up Bucs offense.

Pick: Under 45.5 -110